Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis for Homeland Security

Providing a defensible basis for allocating resources for critical infrastructure and key resource protection is an important and challenging problem. Investments can be made in countermeasures that improve the security and hardness of a potential target exposed to a security hazard, deterrence measures to decrease the likeliness of a security event, and capabilities to mitigate human, economic, and other types of losses following an incident. Multiple threat types must be considered, spanning everything from natural hazards, industrial accidents, and human-caused security threats. In addition, investment decisions can be made at multiple levels of abstraction and leadership, from tactical decisions for real-time protection of assets to operational and strategic decisions affecting individual assets and assets comprising a regions or sector. The objective of this research is to develop a probabilistic risk analysis methodology for critical asset protection, called Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis, or CAPRA, that supports operational and strategic resource allocation decisions at any level of leadership or system abstraction. The CAPRA methodology consists of six analysis phases: scenario identification, consequence and severity assessment, overall vulnerability assessment, threat probability assessment, actionable risk assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. The results from the first four phases of CAPRA combine in the fifth phase to produce actionable risk information that informs decision makers on where to focus attention for cost-effective risk reduction. If the risk is determined to be unacceptable and potentially mitigable, the sixth phase offers methods for conducting a probabilistic benefit-cost analysis of alternative risk mitigation strategies. Several case studies are provided to demonstrate the methodology, including an asset-level analysis that leverages systems reliability analysis techniques and a regional-level portfolio analysis that leverages techniques from approximate reasoning. The main achievements of this research are three-fold. First, this research develops methods for security risk analysis that specifically accommodates the dynamic behavior of intelligent adversaries, to include their tendency to shift attention toward attractive targets and to seek opportunities to exploit defender ignorance of plausible targets and attack modes to achieve surprise. Second, this research develops and employs an expanded definition of vulnerability that takes into account all system weaknesses from initiating event to consequence. That is, this research formally extends the meaning of vulnerability beyond security weaknesses to include target fragility, the intrinsic resistance to loss of the systems comprising the asset, and weaknesses in response and recovery capabilities. Third, this research demonstrates that useful actionable risk information can be produced even with limited information supporting precise estimates of model parameters

Optimizing postprandial glucose management in adults with insulin-requiring diabetes: Report and recommendations

Faster-acting insulins, new noninsulin drug classes, more flexible insulin-delivery systems, and improved continuous glucose monitoring devices offer unprecedented opportunities to improve postprandial glucose (PPG) management and overall care for adults with insulin-treated diabetes. These developments led the Endocrine Society to convene a working panel of diabetes experts in December 2018 to assess the current state of PPG management, identify innovative ways to improve self-management and quality of life, and align best practices to current and emerging treatment and monitoring options. Drawing on current research and collective clinical experience, we considered the following issues for the ∼200 million adults worldwide with type 1 and insulin-requiring type 2 diabetes: (i) the role of PPG management in reducing the risk of diabetes complications; (ii) barriers preventing effective PPG management; (iii) strategies to reduce PPG excursions and improve patient quality of life; and (iv) education and clinical tools to support endocrinologists in improving PPG management. We concluded that managing PPG to minimize or prevent diabetes-related complications will require elucidating fundamental questions about optimal ways to quantify and clinically assess the metabolic dysregulation and consequences of the abnormal postprandial state in diabetes and recommend research strategies to address these questions. We also identified practical strategies and tools that are already available to reduce barriers to effective PPG management, optimize use of new and emerging clinical tools, and improve patient self-management and quality of life

Network information and connected correlations

Entropy and information provide natural measures of correlation among elements in a network. We construct here the information theoretic analog of connected correlation functions: irreducible $N$--point correlation is measured by a decrease in entropy for the joint distribution of $N$ variables relative to the maximum entropy allowed by all the observed $N-1$ variable distributions. We calculate the ``connected information'' terms for several examples, and show that it also enables the decomposition of the information that is carried by a population of elements about an outside source.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS): A New Lidar for Aerosol and Cloud Profiling from the International Space Station

Spaceborne lidar profiling of aerosol and cloud layers has been successfully implemented during a number of prior missions, including LITE, ICESat, and CALIPSO. Each successive mission has added increased capability and further expanded the role of these unique measurements in wide variety of applications ranging from climate, to air quality, to special event monitoring (ie, volcanic plumes). Many researchers have come to rely on the availability of profile data from CALIPSO, especially data coincident with measurements from other A-Train sensors. The CALIOP lidar on CALIPSO continues to operate well as it enters its fifth year of operations. However, active instruments have more limited lifetimes than their passive counterparts, and we are faced with a potential gap in lidar profiling from space if the CALIOP lidar fails before a new mission is operational. The ATLID lidar on EarthCARE is not expected to launch until 2015 or later, and the lidar component of NASA's proposed Aerosols, Clouds, and Ecosystems (ACE) mission would not be until after 2020. Here we present a new aerosol and cloud lidar that was recently selected to provide profiling data from the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2013. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a three wavelength (1064,532,355 nm) elastic backscatter lidar with HSRL capability at 532 nm. Depolarization measurements will be made at all wavelengths. The primary objective of CATS is to continue the CALIPSO aerosol and cloud profile data record, ideally with overlap between both missions and EarthCARE. In addition, the near real time (NRT) data capability ofthe ISS will enable CATS to support operational applications such as aerosol and air quality forecasting and special event monitoring. The HSRL channel will provide a demonstration of technology and a data testbed for direct extinction retrievals in support of ACE mission development. An overview of the instrument and mission will be provided, along with a summary of the science objectives and simulated data. Input from the ICAP community is desired to help plan our NRT mission goals and interactions with ICAP forecasters

The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS): a New Lidar for Aerosol and Cloud Profiling from the International Space Station

Spaceborne lidar profiling of aerosol and cloud layers has been successfully implemented during a number of prior missions, including LITE, ICESat, and CALIPSO. Each successive mission has added increased capability and further expanded the role of these unique measurements in wide variety of applications ranging from climate, to air quality, to special event monitoring (ie, volcanic plumes). Many researchers have come to rely on the availability of profile data from CALIPSO, especially data coincident with measurements from other A-Train sensors. The CALIOP lidar on CALIPSO continues to operate well as it enters its fifth year of operations. However, active instruments have more limited lifetimes than their passive counterparts, and we are faced with a potential gap in lidar profiling from space if the CALIOP lidar fails before a new mission is operational. The ATLID lidar on EarthCARE is not expected to launch until 2015 or later, and the lidar component of NASA's proposed Aerosols, Clouds, and Ecosystems (ACE) mission would not be until after 2020. Here we present a new aerosol and cloud lidar that was recently selected to provide profiling data from the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2013. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a three wavelength (1064, 532, 355 nm) elastic backscatter lidar with HSRL capability at 532 nm. Depolarization measurements will be made at all wavelengths. The primary objective of CATS is to continue the CALIPSO aerosol and cloud profile data record, ideally with overlap between both missions and EarthCARE. In addition, the near real time data capability of the ISS will enable CATS to support operational applications such as air quality and special event monitoring. The HSRL channel will provide a demonstration of technology and a data testbed for direct extinction retrievals in support of ACE mission development. An overview of the instrument and mission will be provided, along with a summary of the science objectives and simulated data

Mabel Engineering Flights, 2010-2013: Flight Report

In December 2010, NASA deployed for the first time the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), an airborne simulator for Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) algorithm development. Between 2010 and 2013, engineering flights were conducted in the continental United States, to ready the instrument for deployments to Alaska and Iceland, where flight lines could be designed and flown over sea ice and grounded ice. Ultimately, MABEL engineering missions included: 1) flights based out of NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (California, formerly Dryden Flight Research Center) in 2010, 2011, and 2012; flights based out of NASA Wallops Flight Facility (Virginia) in 2012; flights based out of NASA Langley Research Center (Virginia) in 2013; and flights based out of the Mojave Air and Space Port (California) in 2013

Thermodynamic and cloud parameter retrieval using infrared spectral data

High-resolution infrared radiance spectra obtained from near nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud property information. A fast radiative transfer model, including cloud effects, is used for atmospheric profile and cloud parameter retrieval. The retrieval algorithm is presented along with its application to recent field experiment data from the NPOESS Airborne Sounding Testbed - Interferometer (NAST-I). The retrieval accuracy dependence on cloud properties is discussed. It is shown that relatively accurate temperature and moisture retrievals can be achieved below optically thin clouds. For optically thick clouds, accurate temperature and moisture profiles down to cloud top level are obtained. For both optically thin and thick cloud situations, the cloud top height can be retrieved with an accuracy of approximately 1.0 km. Preliminary NAST-I retrieval results from the recent Atlantic-THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATReC) are presented and compared with coincident observations obtained from dropsondes and the nadir-pointing Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL)

Increased TNF-α/IFN-γ/IL-2 and Decreased TNF-α/IFN-γ Production by Central Memory T Cells Are Associated with Protective Responses against Bovine Tuberculosis Following BCG Vaccination

Central memory T cells (Tcm) and polyfunctional CD4 T cell responses contribute to vaccine-elicited protection with both human and bovine tuberculosis (TB); however, their combined role in protective immunity to TB is unclear. To address this question, we evaluated polyfunctional cytokine responses by CD4 T cell effector / memory populations from bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccinated and non-vaccinated calves prior to and after aerosol challenge with virulent Mycobacterium bovis. Polyfunctional cytokine expression patterns in the response by Tcm, effector memory, and effector T cell subsets were similar between BCG-vaccinated and M. bovis-infected calves; only differing in magnitude (i.e., infected > vaccinated). BCG vaccination, however, did alter the kinetics of the ensuing response to virulent M. bovis infection. Early after challenge (three weeks post-infection), non-vaccinates had greater antigen-specific IFN-γ/TNF-α and lesser IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 responses by Tcm cells than did vaccinated animals. Importantly, these differences were also associated with mycobacterial burden upon necropsy. Polyfunctional responses to ESAT-6:CFP10 (antigens not synthesized by BCG strains) were detected in memory subsets, as well as in effector cells, as early as three weeks after challenge. These findings suggest that cell fate divergence may occur early after antigen priming in the response to bovine TB and that memory and effector T cells may expand concurrently during the initial phase of the immune response. In summary, robust IFN-γ/TNF-α response by Tcm cells is associated with greater mycobacterial burden while IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 response by Tcm cells are indicative of a protective response to bovine TB

Simulations of Infrared Radiances Over a Deep Convective Cloud System Observed During TC4: Potential for Enhancing Nocturnal Ice Cloud Retrievals

Retrievals of ice cloud properties using infrared measurements at 3.7, 6.7, 7.3, 8.5, 10.8, and 12.0 microns can provide consistent results regardless of solar illumination, but are limited to cloud optical thicknesses tau 20, the 3.7 - 10.8 microns and 3.7 - 6.7 microns BTDs are the most sensitive to D(sub e). Satellite imagery appears consistent with these results. Keywords: clouds; optical depth; particle size; satellite; TC4; multispectral thermal infrare